Hypothesis
A customer who is drifting away is cheaper to keep than to replace, and an offer sent over an unresolved fault costs more than it earns.

Commercial, CVM and retention teams
A customer who bought a data pack every month for a year has bought nothing for six weeks. The service works and the customer is silent.
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The product that runs it: Customer Intelligence Explore the stream: Customer Growth & CVMRuns end to end, configured for your organisation and market.
Seen by the customer · App
Sample message. Channel, language and wording come from the market's records.
What happened
Recharge, pack or usage value deteriorates beyond a personal baseline.
A customer who bought a data pack every month for a year has bought nothing for six weeks. The service works and the customer is silent.
What it reads
Checks before anything is sent
Every option, and where the ranking landed
Doing nothing is one of the outcomes, and it is recorded with its reason. Sample records, computed in your browser. Every check permits it, so the ranking chose the option worth the most to both sides.
The shape of the record, with no values. A reference appears only after a run is saved.
Hypothesis
A customer who is drifting away is cheaper to keep than to replace, and an offer sent over an unresolved fault costs more than it earns.
Modelled
A run on the sample records shows the decision, the checks it passed and the receipt the responsible system would return; incremental value is measured in the pilot.
Observed
Measured in a pilot’s validate stage, on your systems, against a comparison agreed first.
Randomised holdout where feasible; intent-to-treat primary view; pre-declared denominator; guardrails for complaints, margin and opt-out
Measured on: Eligible population; treatment rate; conversion; incremental revenue; ARPU; churn; contact rate; margin; opt-out; decision latency
The result wanted.
Incremental revenue or retention; lower contact waste; improved conversion with margin guardrails
The mechanism that could produce it.
Ingest → qualify → score → apply limits/consent → assign control → execute approved action → capture delivery and business outcome → monitor/retrain
The records kept to show it.
Decision log; eligibility snapshot; price/order response; delivery receipt; control assignment; revenue/outcome ledger
The cost, and the ways it can go wrong.
Costs: Setup fee + annual product subscription; optional managed execution fee; optional verified-outcome fee with agreed baseline
If it fails: Fail closed on eligibility/consent/price; queue retryable events; do not duplicate orders; route exception to campaign operations
The measure that shows it helped.
Randomised holdout where feasible; intent-to-treat primary view; pre-declared denominator; guardrails for complaints, margin and opt-out
Measured on: Eligible population; treatment rate; conversion; incremental revenue; ARPU; churn; contact rate; margin; opt-out; decision latency
A saved run keeps the decision and its receipt: what was decided, which checks refused, and what the responsible system returned. It does not show incremental value. That needs the comparison above, over an agreed period, against a baseline finance has accepted.
The business side
| Step | What the customer experiences | What the operator does |
|---|---|---|
| The momentThe moment that started it. | Recharge, pack or usage value deteriorates beyond a personal baseline. | Reads recharge and pack history, recent usage against the pack they were buying, service quality in their area, contact permission and recent contact. |
| The decisionThe decision to be made. | The customer's screen is unchanged. | Ranks a fair-value treatment, care-first action or no-action alternative. |
| The safeguardsThe conditions that stop it. | Still unchanged: the action waits until every check has passed. | Consent, pressure, care, affordability, margin and holdout checks pass. |
| The actionThe action that reaches the customer. | Present a controlled offer and provision only after confirmation. Reaches them on App, SMS, WhatsApp, USSD. | Recommends. The system that holds the right confirms, charges or provisions. |
| When it goes wrongThe failure, and the recovery. | The customer has an open service fault, so a commercial offer would arrive while their service is still broken. | The care gate stops the offer, routes the case to service recovery, and the commercial decision waits until the fault is closed. |
| The resultThe change it made. | What changed for them is what is counted; nothing else is claimed. | Accepted, provisioned save and incremental contribution. |
| The proofThe proof anyone can check. | Can be answered for, later, from the record. | Cohort definition, model version, policy decision, assignment and outcome. |
Operator systems remain authoritative. HeuriTel reads these to propose an action; it does not decide on their behalf.
What goes wrong
The customer has an open service fault, so a commercial offer would arrive while their service is still broken.
What happens then
The care gate stops the offer, routes the case to service recovery, and the commercial decision waits until the fault is closed.
When a regular buying pattern changes, compare a relevant offer, a service check and no action before contacting the customer.
supplies the packs a right-sized offer is chosen from, and the margin each must clear
takes the customer instead when an open service case makes any offer inappropriate
See it run
The demonstration follows the same journey end to end: what the customer sees, what the operator decided, and the evidence behind it.